TikTok Shop hits $23.4bn in US sales, with creators driving three-quarters of revenue
TikTok Shop is forecast to reach $23.41 billion in US retail ecommerce sales in 2026, surpassing Target's online sales of $21.94 billion, according to eMarketer. The platform is the fastest-growing online retailer eMarketer has tracked for the second consecutive year, with a 48% increase year over year.
Sales at that level give the social platform a larger US ecommerce business than Target, Costco, Best Buy, and Kroger, a trajectory that positions creator-led commerce as a structural shift rather than a novelty channel.
The growth is not platform-led. Creators drive around 75% of overall sales on TikTok Shop, according to TikTok's own seller materials. Multiple independent sources support this concentration: affiliate creator content drives 42% of US platform GMV, making it the single largest sales channel, while affiliate-driven sales account for an estimated 60 to 70% of total TikTok Shop GMV in the US.
This means the majority of TikTok Shop revenue flows through individuals, not brand accounts or paid advertising. For social media marketers, the implication is blunt: the biggest US commerce platform outside Amazon and Walmart now runs on creator relationships, not media budgets.
Who is actually buying
35% of US adults had used TikTok Shop in 2026, up from 23% a year earlier, per a March 2026 CivicScience survey cited by eMarketer. Among US buyers who made a social purchase in the past year, 70% did so via TikTok Shop, ranking it above Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.
The demographic story is shifting. The fastest-growing age group by year-over-year spending in Q2 is shoppers over 35, indicating TikTok Shop's customer base is broadening beyond younger users. Shoppers making 20 or more purchases in Q2 accounted for about 30% of total spending while representing 5% of buyers, pointing to a concentration of heavy repeat purchasers driving disproportionate revenue.
By July 2026, TikTok Shop accounted for about 2% of online US retail spending, surpassing major retailers like Target, Costco, and The Home Depot, according to credit and debit card transaction data from Consumer Edge. That figure is up from 1.2% a year ago.
TikTok's ability to blend shopping and entertainment is turning the platform into an ecommerce powerhouse.
Rachel Wolff, retail and ecommerce analyst at eMarketerWhat this changes for marketers
The affiliate structure explains the velocity. Affiliate commissions typically run 5% to 30%, averaging 13.1% in 2025, on top of TikTok's 6% take rate, plus sampling, fulfilment, and elevated returns from impulse buying. The average US commission rate has climbed to 13.02%.
For brands, the operational reality diverges sharply from performance advertising. Instead of optimising creative against cost per acquisition, success depends on recruiting, managing, and retaining a network of affiliate creators. Tarte Cosmetics reportedly generated over $40 million in TikTok Shop revenue last year, with 88% coming from affiliate creators.
Unlike Amazon or Walmart, where listings and search ads drive sales, TikTok Shop is driven by viral creator-made shoppable video. The product discovery mechanism is fundamentally different: users do not search with intent; they encounter products algorithmically through content they were already watching.
The margin pressure is real. 65% of US social buyers who changed their social shopping behaviour cited better deals and promotions as the reason, conditioning the audience to expect discounts. After platform fees, commissions, fulfilment, and returns, the unit economics tighten quickly for brands without strong gross margins.
Category performance and what sells
In beauty, TikTok Shop is already the fourth-largest US health and beauty ecommerce retailer, with category dollar sales up 107.7% year over year. TikTok Shop's category dollar sales jumped 107.7% YoY in the 52 weeks ended December 27, 2025, while unit sales rose 45.3% in the same period. By comparison, Amazon's dollar and unit sales increased by 23.9% and 25.2%, respectively.
The marketplace serves as an important incubator for emerging brands, which are using their newfound influence to challenge big names like Estée Lauder and L'Oréal. The majority of the top 10 best-selling beauty brands on TikTok Shop are newcomers.
TikTok Shop is expanding beyond lifestyle categories. The mix is diversifying into consumer electronics, home, small appliances, and food and beverage, with sales from brands with at least $30 million in annual revenue rising 97% YoY in 2025, per TikTok data.
Context and what comes next
eMarketer expects TikTok Shop to generate $23.41 billion in sales this year, giving it a larger ecommerce business than Target, Kroger, Shein, and Best Buy. The eMarketer data shows five years of TikTok Shop US sales: $1.50 billion in 2023, $7.61 billion in 2024, $15.82 billion in 2025, $23.41 billion in 2026, and $28.56 billion in 2027.
TikTok Shop now commands 22.8% of all US social commerce in 2026. That share is expected to hit 24.1% by 2027, while the other 75% is dominated mainly by Facebook Marketplace and Instagram.
The operational infrastructure is catching up. TikTok Shop's own warehouse network grew to 47 locations across North America, with average shipping time dropping from 4.2 days in 2024 to 2.1 days in 2025.
For social media marketers, the question is no longer whether TikTok Shop matters. It is whether your organisation has built the creator recruitment, product sampling, commission management, and content coordination infrastructure required to compete in a channel where three-quarters of revenue flows through people you do not employ.
The brands treating TikTok Shop as a media buy are structurally disadvantaged against those treating it as a creator programme. The $23.4 billion figure confirms which model is winning.